Medical resource allocation planning by integrating machine learning and optimization models

Patients' waiting time is a major issue in the Canadian healthcare system. The planning for resource allocation impacts patients' waiting time in medicare settings. This research focuses on the reduction of patients' waiting time by providing better planning for radiological resource allocation and efficient workload distribution. Resource allocation planning is directly related to the number of patient-arrival and it is hard to predict such uncertain parameters in the future time frame. The number of patient-arrival also varies across different modalities and different timeframes which makes the patient-arrival prediction challenging. In this research, a new three-phase solution framework is proposed where a new multi-target machine learning technique is integrated with an optimization model. In the first phase, a novel Ensemble of Pruned Regressor Chain (EPRC) model is developed and trained offline to predict uncertain parameters, such as patients' arrival. The proposed model is then compared with two popular multi-target prediction methods to evaluate the model's accuracy. In the second phase, the trained model is deployed in the real-time environment to forecast patients' arrival, miss Turn Around Time (miss-TAT) rate, and probable workload count. The forecasted data is used in phase three where a new multi-objective optimization model is developed to determine workload allocation. The Weighted-sum method is used to get efficient solutions. The proposed model is deployed in a Canadian healthcare company and evaluated using real-time healthcare data. It is observed in terms of accuracy, the proposed EPRC model performed 10.81 % better compared to the other multi-target models considered in this study. It is also noticed that the forecasting results have a direct impact on the workload distribution, where the proposed model decreases the total workload by approximately 25 %. Besides, the result shows the efficient workload distribution provided by the proposed framework can reduce the average patients' waiting time by 8.17 %.