Application of the postnatal urinary tract dilation classification system to predict the need for surgical...

The aim of this study was to validate the postnatal urinary tract dilation (UTD) classification system by correlating it with the need for surgical intervention.

Young infants who underwent ultrasound (US) examinations for prenatal hydronephrosis were retrospectively identified. The kidney units (KUs; right, left, or bilateral) were graded from UTD P0 (very low risk) to P3 (high risk) based on seven US criteria from the UTD system. Surgery-free survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis clustered by patients was performed. Interobserver agreement was analyzed using the weighted kappa coefficient.

In total, 504 KUs from 336 patients (mean age, 18.3±15.9 days; range, 1 to 94 days; males, n=276) were included, with a median follow-up of 24.2 months. Fifty-eight KUs underwent surgical intervention. Significant differences were observed among the Kaplan-Meier curves stratified into UTD groups (P<0.001). The presence of anterior-posterior renal pelvic diameter ≥15 mm (hazard ratio [HR], 8.602; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.558 to 43.065), peripheral calyceal dilation (HR, 8.190; 95% CI, 1.558 to 43.065), ureteral dilation (HR, 2.619; 95% CI, 1.274 to 5.380), parenchymal thickness abnormality (HR, 3.371; 95% CI, 1.574 to 7.223), bladder abnormality (HR, 12.209; 95% CI, 3.616 to 41.225) were significantly associated with the occurrence of surgery. The interobserver agreement was moderate to almost perfect agreement for US features (κ=0.564-0.898) and substantial for final UTD grades (κ=0.716).

The UTD classification system is reliable and appropriately stratifies the risk of surgical intervention.