Long-term Outcomes of Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Multicenter Cohort Study from CSTAR Registry

To study the long-term outcomes, in the context of both mortality and organ damage in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Chinese SLE Treatment and Research group (CSTAR) registry cohort.

Patients were enrolled from April 2009 to February 2010 and they were followed up. The demographic data, clinical manifestations, labs test results and imaging examinations, disease activity (SLEDAI-2K), damage scores (SLLIC/Damage Index [SDI]), and medications were collected. Data were censored at either the last clinic visit or telephonic interview. Survival rate was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier (KM) method. COX proportional hazard model was adopted to perform the analysis of predicting factors for mortality and organ damage. Logistic regression analysis was employed to discuss the relationship among mortality, organ damage, and flare.

A total of 2104 patients were recruited at baseline and 1494 patients were followed up. The cumulative 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were 98.3%, 96.9%, and 95.7%, respectively. Seventy-eight patients died during follow-up, and the main causes of death were infection (34.6%), active disease (26.9%), cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (5.13%), and malignancy (5.13%). At entry, 247 patients presented with irreversible organ damage and it increased to 398 patients at the endpoint. The major accumulated organ damages were kidney (25.9%), musculoskeletal disease (20.2%), neuropsychiatric disease (12.2%), and pulmonary damage (10.9%). Cox regression analysis further showed that male, late disease onset, delayed diagnosis (diagnosis from disease onset >1 year), baseline organ damage, and specific organ involvements predicted for higher mortality. In addition, early disease onset was a protecting factor for organ damage, and anti-SSA was an independent predicting factor for new organ damage. Logistic regression analysis showed that flare predicted for more organ damage.

The 5-year survival rate of Chinese SLE patients has improved and is comparable to Caucasians SLE patients. Disease flare impact on prognosis is the increasing risk of damage development. Early diagnosis, prevention for flare and damage to maintain remission, may improve outcome.