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Modelling optimal lockdowns with waning immunity.

Aditya Goenka1, Lin Liu2, Manh-Hung Nguyen3

  • 1Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, England.

Economic Theory
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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Optimal long-term lockdowns are not advised for endemic diseases with waning immunity, even with mortality, unless welfare loss is explicitly considered. Economic models with SIRS dynamics are explored.

Keywords:
Covid-19Endogenous discountingInfectious diseasesLockdownMortalityNPIQuarantineSIRS modelSelf-isolationSufficiency conditions

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Economics

Background:

  • Endemic diseases with waning immunity (SIRS dynamics) pose long-term challenges.
  • Previous economic models did not fully account for disease mortality and immunity failure.
  • COVID-19 highlighted the need to understand long-term optimal public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine optimal long-term lockdown policies for endemic diseases with SIRS dynamics.
  • To analyze the impact of disease mortality on economic choices and welfare.
  • To develop economic models applicable to non-convex SIRS dynamics with mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Dynamic general equilibrium neoclassical growth framework.
  • Extended welfare function incorporating mortality loss.
  • Analysis of SIRS dynamics with disease-related mortality and endogenous discounting.

Main Results:

  • Optimal long-term lockdowns are not economically justified without explicit mortality-related welfare loss.
  • Optimal restrictions depend on lockdown effectiveness, remote work productivity, mortality rates, and immunity failure.
  • New sufficiency conditions are provided for complex economic models with SIRS dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Welfare considerations are crucial for optimal public health interventions during endemic disease states.
  • Economic modeling must incorporate disease-specific factors like mortality and immunity dynamics.
  • The study offers a framework for analyzing long-term disease management in economic contexts.