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Urban density and COVID-19: understanding the US experience
Felipe Carozzi1, Sandro Provenzano1, Sefi Roth1
1Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics, London, UK.
The Annals of Regional Science
|December 5, 2022
Summary
Population density initially correlated with COVID-19 deaths in the USA, but this link disappeared by December 2020. Denser areas experienced earlier outbreaks but not more time-adjusted cases or deaths.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Urban Studies
- Public Health
Background:
- The relationship between population density and infectious disease spread, like COVID-19, is a critical public health concern.
- Understanding this link is vital for effective outbreak response and resource allocation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between population density and COVID-19 mortality in the USA.
- To investigate whether population density influences the timing and overall severity of COVID-19 spread.
Main Methods:
- Utilized graphical evidence, regression analysis, and instrumental variable strategies from agglomeration economics.
- Analyzed data from the epidemic's start through December 2020, incorporating sources like Google, Facebook, and the US Census.
Main Results:
- Initially, higher population density correlated with increased COVID-19 deaths.
- By December 2020, this cross-sectional relationship became flat, indicating density did not impact time-adjusted deaths.
- Denser counties were more likely to experience earlier outbreaks.
Conclusions:
- Population density appears to influence the timing of COVID-19 outbreaks rather than the overall time-adjusted severity.
- Findings suggest that while density may accelerate initial spread, its long-term impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths is negligible when adjusted for time.
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