A universal cell-free DNA approach for response prediction to preoperative chemoradiation in rectal cancer

The standard treatment approach for stage II/III rectal cancer is neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (nCRT) followed by surgery. In recent years, new treatment approaches have led to higher rates of complete tumor eradication combined with organ-preservation strategies. However, better tools are still needed to personalize therapy for the individual patient. In this prospective observational study, we analyzed colon-derived cell-free (cf)DNA (c-cfDNA) using a tissue-specific DNA methylation signature, and its association with therapy outcomes. Analyzing plasma samples (n = 303) collected during nCRT from 37 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), we identified colon-specific methylation markers that discriminated healthy individuals from patients with untreated LARC (area under the curve, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.92; P < .0001). Baseline c-cfDNA predicted tumor response, with increased levels linked to larger residual cancer. c-cfDNA measured after the first week of therapy identified patients with maximal response and complete cancer eradication, who had significantly lower c-cfDNA compared with those who had residual disease (8.6 vs 57.7 average copies/ml, respectively; P = .013). Increased c-cfDNA after 1 week of therapy was also associated with disease recurrence. Methylation-based liquid biopsy can predict nCRT outcomes and facilitate patient selection for escalation and de-escalation strategies.