Impact of Federal Lung Cancer Screening Policy on the Incidence of Early-stage Lung Cancer

In December 2013 the US Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended annual lung cancer screening for high-risk patients. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) later announced coverage in 2015. The impact of these federal decisions at the population level is unknown.

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we studied changes in lung cancer incidence by stage and linked to US census data to obtain age-adjusted estimates standardized to the US population. Based on age at diagnosis we stratified patients as age-eligible or age-ineligible for screening. We used difference-in-differences regression to determine the effect of screening on lung cancer incidence by stage.

For all age groups the incidence of early-stage lung cancer both before and after the USPSTF guidelines remained relatively stable at 12.8 ± 0.52 and 13.5 ± 0.92 per 100,000 patients, respectively (P = .068). However the difference-in-differences analysis estimated an absolute increase in the age-adjusted incidence by 3.4 per 100,000 persons in the age-eligible group after the announcement of the guidelines (P = .007). The effect was even larger after the CMS decision (4.3/100,000 persons, P < .001). Similarly there was a 14.2 per 100,000 persons absolute reduction in the incidence of advanced-stage lung cancer (P < .001).

The 2013 USPSTF lung cancer screening guidelines and CMS coverage decisions were associated with an increased incidence of early-stage lung cancer and decreased incidence of advance-staged lung cancer at the population level.