Development and validation of models for detection of postoperative infections using structured electronic health

Kathryn L Colborn1, Yaxu Zhuang2, Adam R Dyas3

  • 1Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO; Surgical Outcomes and Applied Research Program, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO; Department of Biostatistics and Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO; Adult and Child Consortium for Health Outcomes Research and Delivery Science, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO.

Surgery
|December 5, 2022
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Automated surveillance using electronic health records can accurately track postoperative infections for all surgeries. This method is more efficient than manual review, enabling timely evaluation and reporting of infection rates.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Informatics
  • Public Health Surveillance
  • Clinical Epidemiology

Background:

  • Postoperative infections are a major complication, often exceeding 50% of all postoperative issues.
  • Current surveillance relies on manual chart review, which is costly, time-consuming, and covers only 10-15% of operations.
  • Automated surveillance systems are needed for comprehensive and timely evaluation of all surgical operations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate accurate, interpretable models for postoperative infection surveillance.
  • To utilize structured electronic health records (EHR) data for this automated surveillance.
  • To improve the efficiency and scope of monitoring surgical site infections, urinary tract infections, sepsis, and pneumonia.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 30,639 operations from five hospitals (2013-2019).
  • Linking EHR data with American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program outcomes.
  • Applying the knockoff filter for variable selection in penalized regression models, validated on a held-out dataset.

Main Results:

  • Seven percent of patients developed at least one postoperative infection.
  • Developed models with 4-8 variables demonstrated high performance (AUROC >0.91).
  • Achieved excellent metrics: specificity >81%, sensitivity >87%, negative predictive value >99%, and positive predictive value 10-15%.

Conclusions:

  • Electronic health records data and simple linear regression models enable accurate surveillance of postoperative infection rates.
  • This approach allows for the implementation of comprehensive surveillance and reporting across all operations.
  • Automated surveillance significantly enhances the ability to monitor and manage postoperative complications effectively.

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