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Predicting European cities' climate mitigation performance using machine learning.

Angel Hsu1,2,3, Xuewei Wang4,5,6, Jonas Tan7

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European cities in climate initiatives likely reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since 2001. Cities reporting emissions data showed greater reductions, highlighting data

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Urban planning
  • Climate change mitigation

Background:

  • Cities are increasingly recognized as key players in global climate action.
  • A significant challenge in assessing urban climate performance is the scarcity of reliable emissions data.
  • Evaluating city-level mitigation efforts requires robust and scalable methodologies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a machine learning approach for evaluating climate mitigation performance in European cities.
  • To assess trends in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for local administrative areas across Europe from 2001 to 2018.
  • To investigate the relationship between participation in climate initiatives, data reporting, and emissions reduction performance.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a machine learning model integrating publicly available environmental and socio-economic data with self-reported emissions.
  • Applied the model to nearly all local administrative areas in Europe for the period 2001-2018.
  • Predicted annual CO2 emissions to analyze city-scale mitigation trends.

Main Results:

  • European cities engaged in transnational climate initiatives demonstrated a likely decrease in CO2 emissions since 2001.
  • Over half of these cities appear to have met their 2020 emissions reduction targets.
  • Cities that reported emissions data exhibited greater emissions reductions compared to those that did not.

Conclusions:

  • The developed machine learning approach offers a scalable and replicable method for assessing city-level climate mitigation performance.
  • Data reporting by cities is positively correlated with successful emissions reductions.
  • Further research and data transparency are crucial for accurately tracking and enhancing urban climate action.