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Published on: November 10, 2023
Investigation of Factors Affecting COVID-19 and Sixth Wave Management Using a System Dynamics Approach
Nasser Safaie1, Maryam Kaveie1, Siroos Mardanian1
1Department of Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Reducing behavioral risks and increasing COVID-19 vaccination are key to controlling the pandemic. Unplanned reopening of society can lead to suffering and subsequent peaks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presents unprecedented global health and economic challenges.
- Social distancing measures, including school closures and bans on gatherings, were implemented to curb virus transmission.
- Vaccination programs are central to government strategies for easing restrictions.
Observation:
- This study utilizes a system dynamics approach to analyze COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
- The research expands the basic SEIR model to incorporate interventions like vaccination and policy changes.
- Scenarios of easing restrictions and returning to pre-pandemic conditions were examined to predict and prevent future peaks.
Findings:
- Reducing behavioral risks and enhancing vaccination rates are the most critical factors in disease control.
- Adherence to hygiene disrupts transmission chains, while vaccination boosts individual immunity.
- Business and educational center closures, coupled with income support, effectively managed the pandemic, highlighting the need for public-private cooperation.
Implications:
- Unplanned relaxation of restrictions, especially concerning educational institutions, risks resurgence and public suffering.
- Effective pandemic control requires a coordinated approach involving individual behavior, vaccination, and government policy.
- Understanding disease behavior through modeling is crucial for developing resilient public health strategies.
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