COVID-19 policy analysis for 10 European countries

The goal of this paper is to analyze the COVID-19 policies of 10 European countries, including Sweden, Finland, Norway, Italy, France, Germany, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Hungary, with a time-series policy analysis tool.

The results of the COVID-19 policy analysis are based on a single time-series indicator, or daily population mortality rate: the number of COVID-19 daily cumulative deaths divided by the population in millions. The lower the score, the better the policy. Although many experts believe that the COVID-19 policy outcome analysis is premature, time series analysis is an excellent analysis that can provide information on the progress and transition of policy outcomes. In other words, the proposed time series analysis tool allows policymakers to identify and quantify when mistakes were made during the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 policy analysis discovered many useful facts. Sweden failed due to the herd immunity approach. Hungary made a fundamental mistake in COVID-19 tactics. Countries such as Sweden, Hungary, Belgium, and Poland showed time-series changes that differed from the others.

Public health interventions can play a key role in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed policy analysis tool, hiscovid demonstrated the effectiveness of the time-series score behavior for discovering when policymakers made mistakes.