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Association between public attention and monkeypox epidemic: A global lag-correlation analysis
Wenxin Yan1, Min Du1, Chenyuan Qin1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Journal of Medical Virology
|December 8, 2022
Summary
Google Trends Index (GTI) can help monitor monkeypox outbreaks. Public attention via GTI showed a significant correlation with daily monkeypox cases, particularly with a 13-day lead time.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Surveillance
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Human monkeypox emerged as a global public health concern.
- Google Trends Index (GTI) offers potential for real-time infectious disease surveillance by tracking public attention.
Approach:
- Lag-correlation analysis assessed Spearman correlation between GTI and monkeypox cases across 20 countries (-36 to +36 day lag).
- Meta-analyses pooled country-level correlation coefficients.
- Vector autoregression and Granger-causality tests explored GTI's forecasting significance.
Key Points:
- Strongest correlation found at a +13 day lag (r=0.53).
- Meta-analysis revealed significant positive correlations from -12 to +36 day lags, most notable at +3 days.
- GTI causality for daily cases was significant globally and in multiple countries.
Conclusions:
- A robust association exists between a 13-day lead time in GTI and worldwide daily monkeypox cases.
- GTI serves as a potential early warning and surveillance indicator for monkeypox outbreaks.
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