Seasonal peak photosynthesis is hindered by late canopy development in northern ecosystems

The seasonal dynamics of the vegetation canopy strongly regulate the surface energy balance and terrestrial carbon fluxes, providing feedbacks to climate change. Whether the seasonal timing of maximum canopy structure was optimized to achieve a maximum photosynthetic carbon uptake is still not clear due to the complex interactions between abiotic and biotic factors. We used two solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence datasets as proxies for photosynthesis and the normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index products derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer as proxies for canopy structure, to characterize the connection between their seasonal peak timings from 2000 to 2018. We found that the seasonal peak was earlier for photosynthesis than for canopy structure in >87.5% of the northern vegetated area, probably leading to a suboptimal maximum seasonal photosynthesis. This mismatch in peak timing significantly increased during the study period, mainly due to the increasing atmospheric CO₂, and its spatial variation was mainly explained by climatic variables (43.7%) and nutrient limitations (29.6%). State-of-the-art ecosystem models overestimated this mismatch in peak timing by simulating a delayed seasonal peak of canopy development. These results highlight the importance of incorporating the mechanisms of vegetation canopy dynamics to accurately predict the maximum potential terrestrial uptake of carbon under global environmental change.