Statistical inference for seed mortality and germination with seed bank experiments

Plant population ecologists regularly study soil seed banks with seed bag burial and seed addition experiments. These experiments contribute crucial data to demographic models, but we lack standard methods to analyze them. Here, we propose statistical models to estimate seed mortality and germination with observations from these experiments. We develop these models following the principles of event history analysis, and analyze their identifiability and statistical properties by algebraic methods and simulation. We demonstrate that seed bag burial, but not seed addition experiments, can be used to make inferences about age-dependent mortality and germination. When mortality and germination do not change with seed age, both experiments produce unbiased estimates but seed bag burial experiments are more precise. However, seed mortality and germination estimates may be inaccurate when the statistical model that is fit makes incorrect assumptions about the age dependence of mortality and germination. The statistical models and simulations that we present here can be adopted and modified by plant population ecologists to strengthen inferences about seed mortality and germination in the soil seed bank.