Systematic In-Silico Evaluation of the Diagnostic Impact of Mpox Genome Variants in the Current Outbreak

The rapid rate at which the current mpox virus outbreak has spread across the globe has led the World Health Organization to declare it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Polymerase chain reaction-based methods are one of the cornerstones for effective molecular detection of viruses including mpox virus. Genetic variants in primer binding sites are known to impact the efficiency of polymerase chain reaction and therefore diagnosis. Here we have analyzed the genetic variants and their impact on efficient binding of oligonucleotides used in diagnostics.

In this study, we have systematically collected primers and probes used in the detection of mpox virus from published literature and public resources, and assessed the impact of primer binding region genetic variants in the detection of mpox virus by analysing the thermodynamic parameters, Gibbs free energy and melting temperature. These were calculated using the nearest neighbour method for variants in mpox virus genomes available and the deviation in parameters was computed with respect to the reference genome sequence.

We have identified 170 genetic variations that fall within the oligo binding region in 1176 mpox virus genomes out of which five oligos showed at least a 2 °C decrease in melting temperature, which could potentially affect the diagnostic efficacy.

Our analysis shows the importance of continuous monitoring of mpox virus detection primer efficacy and provides the list of oligos with potentially reduced detection efficiency in the current mpox virus outbreak.