Association between Global Monkeypox Cases and Meteorological Factors

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Virology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• The global Monkeypox disease (MPXD) outbreak highlights the need to understand transmission dynamics.
• Limited research exists on the impact of climatic changes on Monkeypox virus (MPXV) spread.
• Investigating meteorological drivers is essential for predicting and managing MPXD outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine changes in MPXV cases globally over time.
• To assess the correlation between meteorological factors and MPXV transmission.
• To identify key climatic variables influencing MPXD outbreaks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized time-series statistical models: Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), ARIMA, Prophet, and ARIMAX.
• Analyzed global MPXV case data from May to November 2022.
• Incorporated meteorological data including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed.

Main Results:

• ARIMAX model indicated temperature, relative humidity, and surface pressure positively impact MPXV cases.
• Dew point, precipitation, and wind speed showed a significant negative correlation with MPXD cases.
• Prophet model confirmed a significant correlation with rising MPXD cases, predicting increasing trends.

Conclusions:

• Meteorological factors play a significant role in MPXV transmission patterns.
• Findings emphasize the need for proactive control strategies, including public awareness and vaccine development.
• Integrated approaches combining epidemiological and environmental data are vital for MPXD management.