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Association between Global Monkeypox Cases and Meteorological Factors.

Md Aminul Islam1,2, Sarawut Sangkham3, Ananda Tiwari4,5

  • 1Advanced Molecular Lab, Department of Microbiology, President Abdul Hamid Medical College, Karimganj 2310, Bangladesh.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|December 11, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Climatic factors like temperature and humidity influence Monkeypox virus (MPXV) transmission. Understanding these meteorological drivers is crucial for developing effective MPXD control strategies and preparedness.

Keywords:
Monkeypox disease (MPXD)daily casesmathematical modelsmeteorological factorsmonkeypox (MPX)monkeypox virus (MPXV)temperature and dew pointtreatment and vaccinezoonotic disease

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • The global Monkeypox disease (MPXD) outbreak highlights the need to understand transmission dynamics.
  • Limited research exists on the impact of climatic changes on Monkeypox virus (MPXV) spread.
  • Investigating meteorological drivers is essential for predicting and managing MPXD outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine changes in MPXV cases globally over time.
  • To assess the correlation between meteorological factors and MPXV transmission.
  • To identify key climatic variables influencing MPXD outbreaks.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized time-series statistical models: Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), ARIMA, Prophet, and ARIMAX.
  • Analyzed global MPXV case data from May to November 2022.
  • Incorporated meteorological data including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed.

Main Results:

  • ARIMAX model indicated temperature, relative humidity, and surface pressure positively impact MPXV cases.
  • Dew point, precipitation, and wind speed showed a significant negative correlation with MPXD cases.
  • Prophet model confirmed a significant correlation with rising MPXD cases, predicting increasing trends.

Conclusions:

  • Meteorological factors play a significant role in MPXV transmission patterns.
  • Findings emphasize the need for proactive control strategies, including public awareness and vaccine development.
  • Integrated approaches combining epidemiological and environmental data are vital for MPXD management.