Trade Flow Optimization Model for Plastic Pollution Reduction

Managing plastic waste from an international perspective is complex, with many countries in the trade network playing distinct roles at different stages of the life-cycle of plastics. Trade flows are therefore the key to understanding global plastic market and its supply chains. In this paper, we formulate an optimization problem from the perspective of reducing global ocean plastic pollution, and create a novel framework based on a network flow model to identify the optimal international trade flows over the life-cycle of plastics. Our model quantifies global flows of production, consumption, and trade across the life-cycle of plastics from raw inputs and subsequent plastic products to its final stage as waste. Using panel data on plastic consumption, waste, and production, we compare the trade flows in reality and the optimal trade flows determined by our model and find that the two are highly correlated. We highlight the policy implications based on our model: increasing trade capacity and improving recycle rates in developing countries.