How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Climate change poses significant risks to global food security, necessitating accurate assessments of crop distribution shifts.
• Understanding historical and projected changes in rice production is crucial for effective climate risk management in agriculture.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of rice production distribution in China from 1990 to 2019.
• To explore the driving effects of climatic and environmental factors on rice distribution patterns.
• To provide insights for climate change adaptation strategies in rice cultivation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and multi-source remote sensing data for data extraction.
• Analyzed the evolution patterns of rice distribution and clusters over three decades.
• Employed a non-parametric quantile regression model to investigate climatic and environmental drivers.

Main Results:

• Rice distribution is concentrated in China's northeast, south, and southwest, exhibiting a "north rising and south retreating" trend.
• Precipitation shows a significant positive effect on rice distribution beyond an 800 mm threshold, with increasing impact at higher levels.
• Projected climate change may drive a continued northward shift in rice production, potentially extending into northwestern China.

Conclusions:

• Rice production distribution in China is dynamic and significantly influenced by climatic factors, particularly precipitation.
• A notable northward shift in rice cultivation is evident, driven by evolving climatic conditions.
• The study provides critical data for developing spatially targeted adaptation measures to mitigate climate change impacts on rice production.