Prediction of inotropic effect based on calcium transients in human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes and machine learning

Functional changes to cardiomyocytes are undesirable during drug discovery and identifying the inotropic effects of compounds is hence necessary to decrease the risk of cardiovascular adverse effects in the clinic. Recently, approaches leveraging calcium transients in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs) have been developed to detect contractility changes, induced by a variety of mechanisms early during drug discovery projects. Although these approaches have been able to provide some predictive ability, we hypothesised that using additional waveform parameters could offer improved insights, as well as predictivity. In this study, we derived 25 parameters from each calcium transient waveform and developed a modified Random Forest method to predict the inotropic effects of the compounds. In total annotated data for 48 compounds were available for modelling, out of which 31 were inotropes. The results show that the Random Forest model with a modified purity criterion performed slightly better than an unmodified algorithm in terms of the Area Under the Curve, giving values of 0.84 vs 0.81 in a cross-validation, and outperformed the ToxCast Pipeline model, for which the highest value was 0.76 when using the best-performing parameter, PW10. Our study hence demonstrates that more advanced parameters derived from waveforms, in combination with additional machine learning methods, provide improved predictivity of cardiovascular risk associated with inotropic effects.