Development and validation of an online nomogram for predicting the outcome of open tracheotomy decannulation: a...

Tracheotomy decannulation is critical for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) to recover. In this study, we developed and validated an intuitive nomogram to predict the success rate of tracheotomy decannulation.

We collected the data of 627 ICU patients before open tracheotomy decannulation from two medical institutions, including 466 patients (135 success and 331 failure) from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University as a training cohort, and 161 patients (57 success and 104 failure) from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University as an external validation cohort. A least absolute shrinkage and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to determine the independent risk factors and construct the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess discrimination and the calibration plots were used to assess consistency. The clinical application was assessed using decision curve analysis and the clinical impact curve.

7 independent risk factors were eventually included in the prediction model. The AUC of the training cohort, internal validation and external validation were 0.932, 0.926, and 0.915, showing good discrimination. The model performed well in terms of calibration, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves. The superior performance of the model was also confirmed by external validation.

This nomogram can help ICU physicians identify high-risk patients for decannulation and plan their pre-decannulation treatment accordingly.