Clinical and endoscopic predictors of gastric precancerous conditions: a large population case control study

Atrophic gastritis (AG) and gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) are well defined intermediate precancerous conditions (PCCs) in the gastric cancer cascade. The diagnosis of PCCs may be suspected based on endoscopic findings but is established by histology. Estimates of the global prevalence of PCCs vary widely but simple clinical or endoscopic predictors of their diagnosis are ill defined. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of gastric PCCs in our practice and to identify predictors for its diagnosis.

We analyzed electronic reports of patients referred for gastroscopy procedures over a 5-year period and included those for whom gastric biopsies were performed. We investigated demographic, clinical, and endoscopic findings to identify possible association with histologic detection of gastric PCCs and performed multivariate analysis to identify predictors of its diagnosis.

A total of 4930 patients with full endoscopic and histologic data were included for the final analysis. Of these, 806 (16.3%) patients had a histologic diagnosis of gastric PCCs. Demographic and clinical variables including male sex (51.4% vs. 45.7%; P=0.003), age over 60 (69.8% vs. 45.2%; P<0.001), and anemia indication for gastroscopy (17.6% vs. 14.8%; P=0.04) were significantly associated with gastric PCCs diagnosis. Likewise, endoscopic findings of Barret's esophagus (2.6% vs. 1.3%; P=0.006), atrophic gastritis according to endoscopist's judgment (12.9% vs. 3.5%; P<0.01) and corpus predominant gastritis (22.5% vs. 14.7%; P=0.02) were significantly associated with gastric PCCs. In multivariate analysis, age>60 (please explain all acronyms HR 2.51, 95% CI 2.12-2.96), male sex (HR 1.235, 95% CI 1.05-1.44), corpus predominant (HR 1.284, 95% CI 1.04-1.57), and atrophic gastritis (HR 4, 95% CI 3.07-5.21) were independent predictors for PCCs diagnosis.

Not uncommonly encountered in our practice, a judicious performance of gastric biopsies to detect gastric PCCs should be adopted especially in older, male patients with endoscopic findings of corpus predominant and/or gastric atrophy.