Development and validation of a novel nomogram predicting pseudohypoxia type pheochromocytomas and paragangliomas

Pseudohypoxia type (PHT) pheochromocytomas and paragangliomas (PPGLs) are more likely to metastasize and have a poor prognosis. However, application of genetic tests has many restrictions. The study aims to establish a novel nomogram for predicting the risk of PHT PPGLs.

This retrospective cross-sectional study included 242 patients with pathology confirmed PPGLs in one tertiary care center in China in 2010-2021. Clinical and biochemical characteristics were collected. Next-generation sequencing was performed in all PPGLs patients for detection of mutation. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to select risk factors for constructing the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the discrimination of the nomogram and the calibration curve was performed.

Four variables including age ≤ 35 years, hypertension, 24 h urinary output of urinary vanillylmandelic acid (VMA) ≥ 100 umol/24 h and urinary 17-ketosteroide (17 KS) ≤ 50 umol/24 h levels were independently associated with PHT PPGLs in the logistic regression analysis and were included in the nomogram. The nomogram showed a good discrimination performance with AUC of 0.829 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.767-0.891] in the training set and 0.797 (95%CI, 0.659-0.935) in the validation set, respectively. The calibration curve showed a bias-corrected AUC of 0.809 vs. 0.795, and a Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test yielded a p value of 0.801 vs. 0.885, indicating the nomogram's good ability to distinguish PHT PPGLs from non-PHT PPGLs.

Our study has proposed a novel nomogram for individualized prediction of the PHT PPGLs, which may make contributions to guide the patients' personalized management, follow-up, and treatment.