Black swans and fat tails

Central tendency refers to the central point or typical value of a dataset. It summarizes the data set with a single value that represents the center of its distribution. The three main measures of central tendency are:
Mean: The arithmetic average of all data points. It is calculated by adding all the values together and dividing by the number of values. The mean is sensitive to extreme values (outliers).
Median: The middle value when the data points are arranged in ascending or descending...

If the frequency distribution of a data set is more inclined towards smaller or larger values, the distribution is said to be skewed. If data values are skewed to the right, then the distribution is called positively skewed. Conversely, if the plot is skewed to the left, the distribution is called negatively skewed.
For instance, in the middle of a pandemic, the geographical distribution of vaccine coverage may be positively skewed towards populations in the global north countries. However,...

The Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, commonly referred to as the runs test, is a nonparametric test used to assess the randomness of ordered data. The test evaluates the number of runs, which are consecutive sequences of similar elements within the data. If the number of runs is significantly higher or lower than expected, the data is considered non-random, indicating a detectable pattern or structure.
For binary data, runs are identified using symbols such as + and −, or equivalently, 1s and...

Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...

A complete procedure of testing a hypothesis about a population mean when the population standard deviation is unknown is explained here.
Estimating a population mean requires the samples to be approximately normally distributed. The data should be collected from the randomly selected samples having no sampling bias. There is no specific requirement for sample size. But if the sample size is less than 30, and we don't know the population standard deviation, a different approach is used;...

Unusual results are those that have a very low chance of occurring. Unusual results can be identified using probabilities and the range rule of thumb. In problems involving probability, unusual results can be observed in 2 instances – an unusually high number of successes or an unusually low number of successes.
According to the range rule of thumb, any value above or below two standard deviations, 2σ  from the mean, μ  is considered unusual.
Maximum unusual value =...