Fluctuations of psychological states on Twitter before and during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has been repeatedly associated with poor mental health. Previous studies have mostly focused on short time frames such as around the first lockdown periods, and the majority of research is based on self-report questionnaires. Less is known about the fluctuations of psychological states over longer time frames across the pandemic. Twitter timelines of 4,735 users from London and New York were investigated to shed light on potential fluctuations of several psychological states and constructs related to the pandemic. Moving averages are presented for the years 2020 and 2019. Further, mixed negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate monthly word counts for the time before and during the pandemic. Several psychological states and constructs fluctuated heavily on Twitter during 2020 but not during 2019. Substantial increases in levels of sadness, anxiety, anger, and concerns about home and health were observed around the first lockdown periods in both cities. The levels of most constructs decreased after the initial spike, but negative emotions such as sadness, anxiety, and anger remained elevated throughout 2020 compared to the year prior to the pandemic. Tweets from both cities showed remarkably similar temporal patterns, and there are similarities to reactions found on Twitter following other previous traumatic events.