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Updated: Aug 17, 2025

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean
Ying Dai1, Peter Hitchcock2, Natalie M Mahowald1
1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
Abstract:
Saharan dust intrusions strongly impact Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions. Today, most operational dust forecasts extend only 2-5 days. Here we show that on timescales of weeks to months, North African dust emission and transport are impacted by sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), which establish a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like surface signal. Chemical transport models show a large-scale dipolar dust response to SSWs, with the burden in the Eastern Mediterranean enhanced up to 30% and a corresponding reduction in West Africa. Observations of inhalable particulate (PM10) concentrations and aerosol optical depth confirm this dipole. On average, a single SSW causes 680-2460 additional premature deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean and prevents 1180-2040 premature deaths in West Africa from exposure to dust-source fine particulate (PM2.5). Currently, SSWs are predictable 1-2 weeks in advance. Altogether, the stratosphere represents an important source of subseasonal predictability for air quality over West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.
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