A broadly applicable quantitative relative reactivity model for nucleophilic aromatic substitution (S_NAr) using...

We report a multivariate linear regression model able to make accurate predictions for the relative rate and regioselectivity of nucleophilic aromatic substitution (S_NAr) reactions based on the electrophile structure. This model uses a diverse training/test set from experimentally-determined relative S_NAr rates between benzyl alcohol and 74 unique electrophiles, including heterocycles with multiple substitution patterns. There is a robust linear relationship between the experimental S_NAr free energies of activation and three molecular descriptors that can be obtained computationally: the electron affinity (EA) of the electrophile; the average molecular electrostatic potential (ESP) at the carbon undergoing substitution; and the sum of average ESP values for the ortho and para atoms relative to the reactive center. Despite using only simple descriptors calculated from ground state wavefunctions, this model demonstrates excellent correlation with previously measured S_NAr reaction rates, and is able to accurately predict site selectivity for multihalogenated substrates: 91% prediction accuracy across 82 individual examples. The excellent agreement between predicted and experimental outcomes makes this easy-to-implement reactivity model a potentially powerful tool for synthetic planning.