Recommendation for imaging follow-up strategy based on time-specific disease failure for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

To develop a common follow-up strategy for appropriate imaging examination at an appropriate time for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

Independent prognostic factors were identified by Cox regression analysis, and a nomogram model was developed. Random survival forest (RSF) model was constructed to depict probability of disease failure during a 5-year follow-up and establish a reasonable risk-based follow-up strategy.

The nomogram model finally categorized the patients into three risk groups. RSF model demonstrated distribution trends for local and regional recurrences, bone metastasis, liver metastasis, and lung metastasis of NPC. Adequate imaging at follow-up should be considered between 10 and 21 months for patients at moderate-risk of recurrence or metastasis and 7-36 months for those at high-risk.

The temporal distribution of incidence rates of recurrence or metastasis varied among different risk groups. We recommend implementing a focused and targeted imaging surveillance intervention at appropriate times to improve its efficiency and reduce costs.