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Association Between Lactate and 28-Day Mortality in Elderly Patients with Sepsis: Results from MIMIC-IV Database
Liudang He1, Donghua Yang2, Qiong Ding2
1Department of Emergency Medicine, The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, No. 161 Shaoshan South Road, Changsha, 410004, Hunan, China.
Introduction:
This study aimed to explore the association of serum lactate with clinical outcomes in elderly patients with sepsis based on data from the MIMIC-IV database.
Methods:
All elderly patients with sepsis (age ≥ 65 years) were included. Different models were constructed for exploring the relationships between lactate and 28-day mortality. A two-segment linear regression model was performed to verify the threshold effects of lactate on clinical outcomes and smooth curve fitting was performed.
Results:
A total of 4199 elderly patients with sepsis were included. The 28-day mortality was 32.22% (n = 1395). After adjustment for all potential cofounders, for each 1 mmol/l increment in lactate, the odds ratio (OR) of 28-day mortality was 1.23 (95% CI 1.18-1.28, P < 0.0001). Smooth fitting curves indicated a non-linear positive relationship between lactate and 28-day mortality. The turning point of lactate level was 5.7 mmol/l: at ≤ 5.7 mmol/l, with each 1 mmol/l increment in lactate, the risk of 28-day mortality increased significantly (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.25-1.38, P < 0.0001); the significantly positive relationship was still present at lactate > 5.7 mmol/l (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.18, P = 0.0019). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of lactate was 0.618 (95% CI 0.599-0.635) and the cutoff value of lactate was 2.4 mmol/l with a sensitivity of 0.483 and a specificity of 0.687.
Conclusion:
In elderly patients with sepsis, a non-linear positive relationship was discovered between serum lactate and 28-day mortality. Physicians should be alert to lactate assessment at admission and pay more attention to those patients with higher levels of lactate.
