Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model of propofol externally validated in Korean elderly subjects

The Eleveld propofol pharmacokinetic (PK) model, which was developed based on a broad range of populations, showed greater bias (- 27%) in elderly subjects in a previous validation study conducted by Vellinga and colleagues. We aimed to develop and externally validate a new PK-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model of propofol for elderly subjects. A population PK-PD model was constructed using propofol plasma concentrations and bispectral index (BIS) values that were obtained from 31 subjects aged 65 years older in previously published phase I studies. The predictive performance of the newly-developed PK-PD model (Choi model) was assessed in a separate Korean elderly population and compared with that of the Eleveld model. A three-compartment mammillary model using an allometric expression and a sigmoid E_max model well-described the time courses of propofol concentrations and BIS values. The V₁, V₂, V₃, Cl, Q₁, Q₂, E₀, E_max, Ce₅₀, γ, and k_e0 of a 60-kg subject were 8.36, 58.0, 650 L, 1.26, 0.917, 0.669 L/min, 92.1, 18.7, 2.21 μg/mL, 2.89, and 0.138 /min, respectively. In the Choi model and Eleveld model, pooled biases (95% CI) of the propofol concentration were 7.78 ( 3.09-12.49) and 16.70 (9.46-23.93) and pooled inaccuracies were 22.84 (18.87-26.81) and 24.85 (18.07-31.63), respectively. The Choi PK model was less biased than the Eleveld PK model in Korean elderly subjects (age range: 65.0-79.0 yr; weight range: 45.0-75.3 kg). Our results suggest that the Choi PK model, particularly, is applicable to target-controlled infusion in non-obese Korean elderly subjects.