Timing of seizure recurrence in adult epileptic patients: a statistical analysis

Seizure diaries were maintained prospectively in 24 epileptic patients (19 with partial complex, three with partial simple, and three with primary generalized seizures) who were selected consecutively, had stable seizure patterns, were reliable historians, and were known to be compliant with medications. Diaries were maintained for an average of 237 days (range, 61-365), and an average of 18 seizures were recorded per patient (range, 5-76). Seizure patterns were analyzed by using the methods appropriate for a time series of events (point process). Two patients had a decreasing trend in seizure frequency. For 12 patients, seizure occurrence was indistinguishable from that of a Poisson process. The remaining 10 patients had an exponential distribution of seizure intervals, but did not fit other criteria for a Poisson process; 3 of these showed evidence for seizure clustering; none showed evidence for a seizure cycle. It is concluded that the pattern of seizure occurrence in most epileptic people is random, but in approximately 50%, it is not occurring according to a Poisson process. These observations indicate that seizure cycling and/or clustering are not common in epileptic patients, but do not exclude the possibility that seizures have been precipitated by some randomly occurring event, such as sleep deprivation or increased stress.