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Mortality Prediction Score for Hirschsprung's Disease-Associated Enterocolitis: A Novel Mortality Prediction Model
Syed Asif Shah Harooni1, G R Prasad2, Gayatri Reddy Danda3
1Associate Professor in General Surgery, DCMS, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
Introduction:
Enterocolitis associated with Hirschsprung's disease is a fatal and serious complication. Number of scoring systems are in vogue to grade the severity of Hirschsprung's disease associated with enterocolitis (HDAEC), but none of these scoring systems help predict mortality. Hence, we attempt to develop a mortality prediction model (MPM) for HDAEC.
Materials And Methods:
A retrospective analysis of all cases of HDAEC encountered was analyzed. We also used the parameters of Elhalaby et al. for data collection. A total number of 71 cases were analyzed with regard to mortality in relation to each parameter. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated by statistician, and based on these values, a scoring model was proposed. All those with predicted mortality were given score 2 and those who did not were given score 1.
Results:
A total score of more than 16 predicted mortality, a score of <10 predicted survival, and a score between 11 and 15 predicted survival with morbidity.
Conclusion:
A MPM for HDAEC is being proposed.
