Practical nomogram based on comprehensive CT texture analysis to preoperatively predict peritoneal occult metastasis...

This study aims to evaluate whether a nomogram based on comprehensive CT texture analysis of primary tumor and peritoneotome combined with conventional CT signs can preoperatively predict peritoneal occult metastasis in gastric cancer patients.

A total of 1,251 patients with gastric cancer (GC) were retrospectively analyzed in Fujian Province Hospital between 2008 and 2020. Patients from the occult peritoneal metastasis (PM) group were initially diagnosed as PM-negative on CT and later confirmed as PM-positive through laparoscopy or surgery. The group without PM was randomly sampled from patients without PM. The preoperative CT signs and texture features and clinical characteristics of patients were retrospectively analyzed. Hazard factors of occult PM were identified by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, which were intended for creating prediction models. A nomogram was established based on the model with the highest predictive efficacy and clinical application value.

A total of 31 patients with occult PM and 165 patients without PM were enrolled in this study. The maximum size, thickness, enhancement, serous involvement of primary GC tumor and ascites on CT, and texture features such as inhomogeneity of the primary tumor, standard deviation, and inhomogeneity of the peritoneum were determined as independent predictors that could be jointly applied to predict occult PM. We separately constructed five forecast models using CT signs, primary tumor texture, peritoneum texture, primary tumor texture + peritoneum texture, and their combination for predicting occult PM. These five prediction models achieved an AUC value of 0.832, 0.70, 0.784, 0.838, and 0.941, respectively. The DeLong test and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) showed that the joint model, containing three meaningful CT signs (maximum size, thickness, and ascites) and two meaningful texture parameters (inhomogeneity of the primary tumor and inhomogeneity of the peritoneum), possessed the best predictive performance and clinical application (p<0.05). A forecast nomogram was subsequently established from the model above-mentioned. The calibration curves of the nomogram indicated a good consistency (a concordance index of 0.807) between the projection and the actual observation of occult PM.

A practical projection nomogram based on the comprehensive CT texture analysis of a primary tumor and peritoneotome combined with conventional CT signs was constructed in our study, which can be conveniently used in preoperative personalized prediction of occult PM for GC patients, and acts as a recommendation for the optimization of clinical management.