Economic analysis through alternative data and big data techniques: what do they tell about Brazil?

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Data Science
• Public Health

Background:

• Alternative data are increasingly used globally but underutilized in Brazilian economic studies.
• Google Trends and Google Mobility offer novel data sources for economic analysis.
• Understanding the economic implications of online behavior and mobility patterns is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate the utility of alternative data from Google Trends and Google Mobility for innovative economic analysis in Brazil.
• To identify new economic indicators derived from alternative data.
• To assess the correlation between internet search behavior and economic development.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of Google Trends data to correlate search terms related to the future with average household income across Brazilian states.
• Utilizing Google Mobility data to examine the impact of reduced mobility in retail/recreation areas on public health and economic indicators.
• Comparative analysis of economic outcomes based on varying levels of mobility reduction.

Main Results:

• A significant positive correlation (R=0.62) was found between internet searches for "the future" and average household income in Brazilian states.
• States with higher "future" search interest exhibit 1.6 times higher average household income.
• Reduced mobility in retail/recreation areas was associated with higher COVID-19 infection and death rates, and lower impacts on unemployment, GDP degrowth, and inflation.

Conclusions:

• Alternative data, specifically Google Trends and Mobility, provide valuable, innovative indicators for economic analysis in Brazil.
• Internet search behavior is a quantifiable indicator of economic development potential.
• Mobility patterns significantly influence public health outcomes and economic stability during crises.