Driving effect of multiplex factors on human brucellosis in high incidence region, implication for brucellosis based...

Brucellosis is a typical zoonosis driven by various risk factors, including environmental ones. The present study aimed to explore the driving effect of environmental factors on human brucellosis in a high incidence rate area, which provides understanding and implications in mitigating disease transmission risk in a multi-system between the human-animal-environment interface for preventing and controlling brucellosis based on the One Health concept. Based on the monthly time series data of human brucellosis and environmental variables, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was applied to assess the association between environmental indicators and human brucellosis incidence (IHB). The results indicated distinct seasonal fluctuation during the study duration, tending to climb from April to August. Atmospheric pressure, precipitation, relative humidity, mean temperature, sunshine duration, and normalized difference vegetation index significantly drive IHB. Moreover, the well-fitting and predicting capability were performed and assessed in the optimal model was the SARIMAX (0,1,1) (0,1,1)₁₂ model with the normalized difference vegetation index (β = 0.349, P = 0.036) and mean temperature (β = 0.133, P = 0.046) lagged in 6 months, and the precipitation lagged in 1 month (β = -0.090, P = 0.004). Our study suggests the association between environmental risk factors and human brucellosis infection, which can be contributed to mitigating the transmission risk in the environmental drivers in a multi-system interface through comprehensive prevention and intervention strategies based on the One Health concept.