Three-tiered EGFr domain risk stratification for individualized NOTCH3-small vessel disease prediction

Cysteine-altering missense variants (NOTCH3cys) in one of the 34 epidermal growth-factor-like repeat (EGFr) domains of the NOTCH3 protein are the cause of NOTCH3-associated small vessel disease (NOTCH3-SVD). NOTCH3-SVD is highly variable, ranging from cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) at the severe end of the spectrum to non-penetrance. The strongest known NOTCH3-SVD modifier is NOTCH3cys variant position: NOTCH3cys variants located in EGFr domains 1-6 are associated with a more severe phenotype than NOTCH3cys variants located in EGFr domains 7-34. The objective of this study was to further improve NOTCH3-SVD genotype-based risk prediction by using relative differences in NOTCH3cys variant frequencies between large CADASIL and population cohorts as a starting point. Scientific CADASIL literature, cohorts and population databases were queried for NOTCH3cys variants. For each EGFr domain, the relative difference in NOTCH3cys variant frequency (NVFOR) was calculated using genotypes of 2574 CADASIL patients and 1647 individuals from population databases. Based on NVFOR cut-off values, EGFr domains were classified as either low (LR-EGFr), medium (MR-EGFr) or high risk (HR-EGFr). The clinical relevance of this new three-tiered EGFr risk classification was cross-sectionally validated by comparing SVD imaging markers and clinical outcomes between EGFr risk categories using a genotype-phenotype data set of 434 CADASIL patients and 1003 NOTCH3cys positive community-dwelling individuals. CADASIL patients and community-dwelling individuals harboured 379 unique NOTCH3cys variants. Nine EGFr domains were classified as an HR-EGFr, which included EGFr domains 1-6, but additionally also EGFr domains 8, 11 and 26. Ten EGFr domains were classified as MR-EGFr and 11 as LR-EGFr. In the population genotype-phenotype data set, HR-EGFr individuals had the highest risk of stroke [odds ratio (OR) = 10.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.46-21.37], followed by MR-EGFr individuals (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 0.84-3.88) and LR-EGFr individuals (OR = 1 [reference]). MR-EGFr individuals had a significantly higher normalized white matter hyperintensity volume (nWMHv; P = 0.005) and peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity (PSMD; P = 0.035) than LR-EGFr individuals. In the CADASIL genotype-phenotype data set, HR-EGFr domains 8, 11 and 26 patients had a significantly higher risk of stroke (P = 0.002), disability (P = 0.041), nWMHv (P = 1.8 × 10-8), PSMD (P = 2.6 × 10-8) and lacune volume (P = 0.006) than MR-EGFr patients. SVD imaging marker load and clinical outcomes were similar between HR-EGFr 1-6 patients and HR-EGFr 8, 11 and 26 patients. NVFOR was significantly associated with vascular NOTCH3 aggregation load (P = 0.006), but not with NOTCH3 signalling activity (P = 0.88). In conclusion, we identified three clinically distinct NOTCH3-SVD EGFr risk categories based on NFVOR cut-off values, and identified three additional HR-EGFr domains located outside of EGFr domains 1-6. This EGFr risk classification will provide an important key to individualized NOTCH3-SVD disease prediction.