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Further epidemiological evaluation of a malaria model
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
|January 1, 1978
Summary
A malaria model was validated using data from Nigeria and Kenya, including insecticide spraying periods. The model accurately predicted Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia, proving useful for malaria control planning.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Vector-Borne Diseases
Background:
- A previously developed malaria model was fitted using one year of baseline data from Nigeria.
- The model's predictive capability needed validation against real-world data, including intervention periods.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test the epidemiological validity of a malaria model.
- To assess the model's suitability for planning malaria control strategies.
Main Methods:
- The Garki malaria model was tested using entomological data from Nigeria and Kenya.
- Vectorial capacity from observed data was used as input, with other parameters fixed.
- Model-estimated Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia prevalence was compared to observed data.
Main Results:
- The model demonstrated good agreement with observed Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia prevalence in both Nigeria and Kenya.
- Validation included data from periods with indoor residual spraying using propoxur (Nigeria) and fenitrothion (Kenya).
Conclusions:
- The Garki malaria model is epidemiologically satisfactory.
- The validated model is suitable for use in planning malaria control operations.