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COVID-19 vaccine incentive scheduling using an optimally controlled reinforcement learning model.

K Stuckey1, P K Newton2,3

  • 1Department of Aerospace & Mechanical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA 90089-1191, United States of America.

Physica D. Nonlinear Phenomena
|December 21, 2022
PubMed
Summary

This study models COVID-19 vaccine uptake using game theory and reinforcement learning. Optimized incentive programs can improve vaccine adoption, but benefits diminish above certain thresholds.

Keywords:
Dynamic incentivesEvolutionary game theoryHawk–Dove gamesOptimal controlReinforcement learning dynamicsVaccine uptake dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Computational Social Science

Background:

  • COVID-19 vaccine uptake is crucial for public health.
  • Heterogeneous population responses (adopters vs. hesitant) influence vaccine coverage.
  • Understanding the dynamics of vaccine hesitancy is key to effective public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model COVID-19 vaccine uptake as a dynamic game between adopters and hesitant individuals.
  • To investigate the impact of dynamic incentive schedules on vaccine adoption rates.
  • To determine optimal incentive strategies, including timing and magnitude, for maximizing vaccine uptake.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized reinforcement learning and replicator dynamics to model population behavior.
  • Estimated payoff matrices from Center for Disease Control (CDC) data.
  • Applied optimal control theory to design and evaluate incentive schedules.

Main Results:

  • Identified the interaction between vaccine adopters and hesitant individuals as a Hawk-Dove evolutionary game.
  • Demonstrated that well-timed and designed incentive programs can increase vaccine uptake by shifting the Nash equilibrium.
  • Found diminishing returns for incentive sizes exceeding a specific threshold.

Conclusions:

  • Dynamic incentive programs offer a viable strategy to enhance COVID-19 vaccine uptake in large populations.
  • The effectiveness of incentives is dependent on careful design, timing, and magnitude.
  • There is a limit to the efficacy of incentives, with significant diminishing returns observed at higher levels.