Dispersed consumption versus compressed output: Assessing the sectoral effects of a pandemic

I process credit-card consumption data through an input-output model of sectoral linkages to impute the sector-level output responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. The sector-level consumption responses are highly dispersed and even positive for some. Yet, all sectors suffer from output losses. Production of intermediate goods stabilises output. Consequently, the sectoral dispersion of final consumption is higher than the sectoral dispersion of output produced. Sectors that provide intermediate goods are affected less by the pandemic. Many service sectors face the largest losses in output since they depend the most on final consumption.