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Fiscal policy during a pandemic.

Miguel Faria-E-Castro1

  • 1Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Research, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102, United States.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The 2020 coronavirus pandemic caused a severe US recession. Fiscal policies like unemployment benefits effectively stabilized borrower incomes, while liquidity assistance best supported employment in affected sectors.

Keywords:
CARES ActCOVID-19Fiscal policyNonlinear DSGEPandemic

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Macroeconomics
  • Public Policy

Background:

  • The 2020 coronavirus outbreak significantly impacted the US economy, causing a deep recession.
  • The pandemic disproportionately affected contact-intensive services, with ripple effects across other sectors.
  • Understanding the economic consequences and effective policy responses is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the effects of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak and subsequent fiscal policy in the US.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of different fiscal interventions in mitigating the recession's impact.
  • To examine the specific impact of the CARES Act of 2020.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.
  • Calibrated the model to match the US unemployment rate trajectory in 2020.
  • Simulated and analyzed various fiscal policy scenarios.

Main Results:

  • The pandemic shock altered the effectiveness of traditional policy multipliers.
  • Unemployment benefits proved most effective for stabilizing income, particularly for vulnerable borrowers.
  • Liquidity assistance programs were superior for stabilizing employment in sectors most affected by the pandemic.

Conclusions:

  • Fiscal policy's impact ranking is sensitive to the nature of the pandemic shock.
  • Targeted support, such as unemployment benefits, is vital for income stability.
  • Sector-specific liquidity support is essential for employment recovery in affected industries.