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A New Coronavirus Estimation Global Score for Predicting Mortality During Hospitalization in Patients with COVID-19

Hesong Zeng1, Xingwei He1, Wanjun Liu1

  • 1Division of Cardiology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430030, China.

Cardiology Discovery
|December 21, 2022
PubMed

Insights

A new Coronavirus Estimation Global (CORE-G) score was developed to predict in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients. This validated tool aids in early risk stratification for better patient outcomes during hospitalization.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Informatics
  • Epidemiology
  • Clinical Medicine

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic necessitates effective tools for predicting patient mortality.
  • Risk stratification models are crucial for identifying high-risk COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care.
  • Existing models may not fully capture the complexity of in-hospital death predictors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a novel risk score system for predicting in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients.
  • To establish an early identification method for COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality.
  • To create a practical tool for clinical use in managing COVID-19 patients.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective analysis of 821 COVID-19 patients from three centers.
  • Patients were divided into developmental (n=411) and validation (n=410) cohorts.
  • The Coronavirus Estimation Global (CORE-G) score was constructed using demographic, symptomatic, and laboratory variables.

Main Results:

  • The CORE-G score incorporates 18 variables (5 demographic, 2 symptomatic, 11 laboratory).
  • The model demonstrated good fit in both developmental (H=3.210, P=0.880) and validation (H=6.948, P=0.542) groups.
  • High predictive performance was observed with AUCs of 0.955 (developmental) and 0.937 (validation), showing excellent sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusions:

  • The CORE-G score effectively estimates the risk of in-hospital death for COVID-19 patients.
  • This score represents a significant advancement towards clinical application for outcome prediction.
  • The CORE-G score facilitates early identification and management of critically ill COVID-19 patients.
Abstract

Keywords:
COVID-19Coronavirus estimation global scoreGoodness-of-fitHospital mortalityReceiver operating characteristicsRisk stratification

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