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Pandemics, intermediate goods, and corporate valuation.

Luc Laeven1

  • 1European Central Bank, Tilburg University, and the CEPR, Germany.

Journal of International Money and Finance
|December 21, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Corporate valuations during the COVID-19 pandemic were impacted by social distancing. Firms in downstream industries facing greater social distancing restrictions experienced larger stock price declines, especially smaller companies.

Area of Science:

  • Business and Economics
  • Financial Markets
  • Pandemic Economics

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted global economies and financial markets.
  • Understanding the differential impact of pandemic-related restrictions on corporate valuation is crucial for economic analysis.
  • Industry-specific vulnerabilities to social distancing measures represent a key factor in market volatility.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between industry exposure to social distancing and U.S. corporate valuation changes during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • To determine if downstream or upstream industry linkages to social distancing differentially affect firm stock prices.
  • To examine potential moderating effects of firm size on these valuation impacts.

Main Methods:

Keywords:
CashIntermediate goodsLiquidityPandemicValuation

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  • Utilized a novel dataset quantifying sectoral dependence on intermediate goods, both for use and sale.
  • Analyzed stock price performance of U.S. corporations during the first quarter of 2020.
  • Employed regression analysis to assess the impact of downstream and upstream sector social distancing exposure on firm valuation.

Main Results:

  • Firms with greater exposure in downstream sectors to social distancing experienced more significant stock price depreciations.
  • The negative impact of downstream social distancing on valuation was less pronounced for larger corporations.
  • Upstream industry exposure did not show a statistically significant relationship with stock price changes in this context.

Conclusions:

  • Downstream industry sensitivity to social distancing was a primary driver of corporate valuation declines in early COVID-19.
  • Firm size acts as a mitigating factor, with large corporations exhibiting greater resilience to these sector-specific shocks.
  • Findings highlight the importance of supply chain linkages and firm characteristics in understanding pandemic economic impacts.