Sex-specific Trajectories of Insulin Resistance Markers and Reduced Renal Function During 18 Years of Follow-up: TLGS

The evidence suggest that insulin resistance (IR) complicates chronic kidney disease (CKD); however, the longitudinal association of IR with development of CKD is unknown.

This work aimed to investigate the association between the dynamic course of insulin resistance and CKD.

In the longitudinal, population-based Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 3071 eligible participants aged 20 years or older were followed for 18 years at 3-year intervals. Homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and clinical surrogate markers of IR, including triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), visceral adiposity index (VAI), and lipid accumulation product (LAP), were calculated. Using latent variable mixture modeling, sex-specific trajectories were plotted for each IR marker. Trajectory group association of the IR markers with CKD was determined using the multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression model.

For HOMA-IR, 2 distinct trajectory patterns (stable and increasing), and for TyG, VAI, and LAP, 3 trajectories (low, moderate, and high) were identified. The participants with an increasing HOMA-IR trajectory had a significantly increased risk of CKD in men (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.72; 95% CI, 1.06-2.79) and women (HR: 1.37; 95% CI, 1.00-1.89) after adjusting for confounding variables. The high TyG and VAI trajectory classes were associated with a higher risk of CKD than the low TyG and VAI trajectory classes both in men (TyG: HR: 1.97; 95% CI, 1.12-3.46; VAI: HR:1.66; 95% CI, 1.06-2.62) and women (TyG: HR: 1.50; 95% CI, 1.06-2.12; VAI: HR:1.66; 95% CI, 1.20-2.31). In contrast, the high LAP (HR: 3.38; 95% CI, 2.08-5.48) trajectory was associated with incident CKD only in women.

An increasing trend of HOMA-IR is associated with a higher risk of CKD in men and women. Among clinical IR surrogate markers, abnormal trajectory patterns of LAP in women and TyG and VAI in both sexes are associated with a higher risk of CKD.