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Selecting correct functional form in consumption function: Analysis of energy demand at household level
Hafsa Hina1, Faisal Abbas1, Unbreen Qayyum1
1Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Plos One
|December 22, 2022
Summary
This study compares energy demand models, finding the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) model superior to the double log model for residential energy demand. Accurate energy demand forecasting is crucial for Pakistan
Area of Science:
- Econometrics
- Energy Economics
- Applied Microeconomics
Background:
- Parametric econometric models are standard for energy demand estimation.
- Debate exists on the optimal functional form for energy demand models.
- Accurate modeling is vital for predicting future energy needs and informing policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the double log model and the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) model for residential energy demand.
- To develop and apply non-nested tests for evaluating functional form validity.
- To provide insights for policymakers regarding energy resource allocation and investment.
Main Methods:
- Utilized non-nested hypothesis testing, specifically the C-test.
- Employed cross-sectional household data from Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) 2013-14 and Asian Development Bank (ADB) 2018.
- Estimated energy demand elasticities (own-price, cross-price, income).
Main Results:
- The LA-AIDS model demonstrated superior performance compared to the double log model.
- Estimated elasticities highlight the significance of price, income, family size, and equipment in energy spending.
- Electricity, natural gas, and firewood constitute major household budget shares.
Conclusions:
- The LA-AIDS model provides a more accurate representation of residential energy demand.
- Rising household per capita energy demand necessitates proactive energy-saving strategies.
- Failure to address energy demand trends may lead to shortages and increased import costs.
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