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A basic macroeconomic agent-based model for analyzing monetary regime shifts.

Florian Peters1, Doris Neuberger1, Oliver Reinhardt2

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This study introduces a macroeconomic agent-based model (MABM) to analyze monetary reforms and their impact on financial stability. The model helps assess systemic risk and compare potential monetary regime shifts.

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Area of Science:

  • Macroeconomics
  • Financial Systems Analysis
  • Computational Economics

Background:

  • Discussions on alternative monetary systems and systemic risk are growing in advanced economies.
  • Monetary regime changes are being considered for more sustainable financial systems, evidenced by European parliamentary debates and a Swiss referendum.
  • The effectiveness of these potential monetary reforms on macro-financial stability remains largely unknown.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To define economic requirements for modeling the current monetary system.
  • To introduce a macroeconomic agent-based model (MABM) for analyzing monetary reforms.
  • To provide a tool for exploring the impact of monetary system changes on financial stability and crisis dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a macroeconomic agent-based model (MABM).
  • Utilizing a continuous-time stochastic agent-based simulation environment with a provenance model.
  • Replication of stylized economic facts to validate the model's analytical capabilities.

Main Results:

  • The MABM is designed to explore and analyze monetary reforms.
  • The model can replicate emergent financial crisis dynamics and analyze institutional changes.
  • The simulation environment facilitates a less complex exploration of different hypotheses and mechanisms.

Conclusions:

  • The developed MABM serves as a starting point for analyzing monetary reforms.
  • The model is validated as a tool for implementing and comparing monetary regime shifts.
  • Macro-financial stability can be measured by analyzing institutional changes and crisis dynamics within the model.