Analysis of High-Risk Extramedullary Relapse Factors in Newly Diagnosed MM Patients

Extramedullary relapse of multiple myeloma (MM) is often resistant to existing treatments, and has an extremely poor prognosis, but our understanding of extramedullary relapse is still limited. The incidence, clinical characteristics, impact on the prognosis of extramedullary relapse, and the risk factors for extramedullary relapse in NDMM patients were analyzed. Among the 471 NDMM patients, a total of 267 patients had disease relapse during follow-up, including 64 (24.0%) patients with extramedullary relapse. Extramedullary relapse was more common in patients with younger age, IgD subtype, elevated LDH, extensive osteolytic lesions, extramedullary involvement, and spleen enlargement at the time of MM diagnosis. Survival analysis showed that extramedullary relapse patients had significantly worse median OS than patients with relapse but without extramedullary involvement (30.8 months vs. 53.6 months, p = 0.012). Multivariate analysis confirmed that elevated LDH (OR = 2.09, p = 0.023), >2 osteolytic lesions (OR = 3.70, p < 0.001), extramedullary involvement (OR = 3.48, p < 0.001) and spleen enlargement (OR = 2.27, p = 0.011) at the time of MM diagnosis were independent risk factors for extramedullary relapse in NDMM patients. Each of the above four factors was assigned a value of 1 to form the extramedullary relapse prediction score, and the 3-year extramedullary relapse rates of patients in the 0−2 and 3−4 score groups were 9.0 % and 76.7 %, respectively. This study suggested that extramedullary relapse was associated with poor clinical characteristics and poor prognosis in NDMM patients. The extramedullary relapse prediction score model composed of LDH, osteolytic lesions, extramedullary involvement and spleen enlargement has a better ability to predict extramedullary relapse than the existing ISS and R-ISS stages.