Exploring Spatial Patterns of Interurban Passenger Flows Using Dual Gravity Models

Geographical gravity models can be employed to quantitatively describe and predict spatial flows, including migration flows, passenger flows, daily commuting flows, etc. However, how to model spatial flows and reveal the structure of urban traffic networks in the case of missing partial data is still a problem to be solved. This paper is devoted to characterizing the interurban passenger flows in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China using dual gravity models and Tencent location big data. The method of parameter estimation is the least squares regression. The main results are as follows. First, both the railway and highway passenger flows can be effectively described by dual gravity models. A small part of missing spatial data can be compensated for by predicted values. Second, the fractal properties of traffic flows can be revealed. The railway passenger flows follow the gravity scaling law better than the highway passenger flows. Third, the prediction residuals indicate the changing trend of interurban connections in the study area in recent years. The center of gravity of the spatial dynamics has shifted from the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan triangle to the Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang axis. A conclusion can be reached that the dual gravity model is an effective tool for analyzing spatial structures and dynamics of traffic networks and flows. Moreover, the model provides a new approach to estimating the fractal dimensions of traffic networks and spatial flow patterns.