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Published on: December 9, 2012
Forecasting petroleum products consumption in Cameroon's household sector using a sequential GMC(1,n) model optimized
Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken1, Khazali Acyl Ahmat2, Michel Boukar2
1Laboratory of Technologies and Applied Science, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698, Douala, Cameroon.
This study introduces a novel forecasting model, Sequential-GMC(1,n)-GA, to accurately predict household petroleum consumption in Cameroon. The model also estimates significant CO2 emission reductions achievable through clean energy transitions.
Area of Science:
- Energy Economics
- Environmental Science
- Applied Mathematics
Background:
- Accurate energy consumption forecasting is crucial for policy and industry.
- Traditional GM(1,1) models have limitations in accuracy due to data trend and environmental factors.
- Optimizing forecasting methods is essential for reliable energy planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a new hybrid forecasting model, Sequential-GMC(1,n)-GA, for petroleum product consumption.
- To forecast household petroleum consumption in Cameroon by 2025.
- To estimate potential CO2 emission reductions from switching to clean energy in Cameroon's household sector.
Main Methods:
- Implementation of a novel GM(1,n) convolution model optimized by genetic algorithms.
- Integration of sequential selection and arc consistency mechanisms for enhanced accuracy.
- Application of the model to forecast petroleum product consumption and CO2 emissions in Cameroon.
Main Results:
- The Sequential-GMC(1,n)-GA model demonstrates robustness and reliability in forecasting.
- Projected household petroleum product needs in Cameroon by 2025 are 150,318 kilotons of oil equivalent (MAPE: 1.44%, RMSE: 0.833).
- A switch to clean energy could reduce household GHG emissions by 733.85 kilotons of CO2 equivalent.
Conclusions:
- The proposed Sequential-GMC(1,n)-GA is a valid and reliable tool for forecasting energy demand.
- The model provides valuable insights for energy policy and planning in Cameroon.
- Transitioning to clean energy offers substantial environmental benefits for the household sector.
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