Bend or break? Small business survival and strategies during the COVID-19 shock

This manuscript studies the impact of the exogenous COVID-19 pandemic shock on small businesses in the United States. We provide early evidence on how small business owners were affected by COVID-19 and the implementation of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. We collected online survey data from a national sample of 463 small business owners across the United States. The survey was conducted in June 2020, eight weeks after the passage of the CARES Act and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. The survey data include information about business characteristics, financial well-being, current response to the crisis, beliefs about the future of their business survival, and the business-owning family demographic information. There are three main themes that emerge from the results. First, drivers of income loss were not necessarily associated with time to recovery. Second, businesses that were undercapitalized were more likely to suffer higher income loss, longer time to recovery, and less likely to be resilient. Resilient was operationalized as a scale merging perceived success, potential for growth, and perceived profitability. Third, business model changes were necessary due to the pandemic but not all adaptive strategies led to better business outcomes. The results from this research study will lead to a better understanding of key vulnerabilities and adjustments that small businesses make to fully recover from economic shocks.