Study and prediction of the 2022 global monkeypox epidemic

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Infectious Disease Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• The World Health Organization declared monkeypox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022.
• Global concerns arose regarding the management and prediction of the monkeypox outbreak.
• Accurate forecasting is essential for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the monkeypox epidemic using the EpiSIX system.
• To forecast the future trends of the global monkeypox outbreak.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of control measures such as vaccination and isolation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized EpiSIX, an epidemic analysis and prediction system based on a general SEIR model.
• Analyzed data from the USA CDC and WHO for the period leading up to October 28, 2022.
• Performed simulations to predict epidemic status, reproduction number, asymptomatic cases, and vaccination efficacy.

Main Results:

• Predicted the global monkeypox epidemic to enter a low status by March 1, 2023, with 85,000-124,000 cumulative cases and 60-87 deaths.
• Estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) near 3.1 and asymptomatic cases at 13.1%-14.5%.
• Calculated vaccination efficiencies against susceptibility (VEs) at ~79% and against infectiousness (VEi) at ~76%-82%.

Conclusions:

• Ring vaccination demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in controlling the monkeypox outbreak.
• A 20-day isolation period for close contacts is confirmed as a necessary measure.
• The study provides data-driven insights for managing the ongoing monkeypox epidemic.